5 questions0m 0s
Learn the skill
Name every individual tile. When the first tile stays out, that same physical tile cannot be drawn again, but a different tile of the same shape may remain. List first-then-second paths and exclude only the impossible ones. All allowed paths in this uniform two-draw model are equally likely. A probability for two stars together is not the probability of a second star GIVEN that the first was a star. Reset between questions.
Worked example
A separate worked bag has S1, S2, S3 and C1. Keep the first tile out. Each of 4 first choices leaves 3 second choices: 12 equally likely paths. The 3 stars each have 2 other stars that can follow, so 6/12 = 1/2 of all pairs have two stars. Same-name pairs such as S2 then S2 are excluded, not all same-shape pairs.
