Forecast detectives

Use place, time, temperature, wind, and rain chances to make a plan.

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5 questions0m 0s

Learn the skill

A forecast predicts conditions; an observation records what happened. Check location, valid time and units. Rain probability describes a chance at a point during the stated period, not how long rain lasts. Update your plan as forecasts change.

Worked example

At the practice station, morning is 12 C with 20% rain chance; afternoon is 19 C with 70%. Afternoon is warmer and has the higher rain chance, not a guarantee of rain.

Fictional forecast table: morning 12 C and 20 percent rain, afternoon 19 C and 70 percent rain, evening 14 C and 40 percent rain.

Would you believe it?

A 40% chance of rain is not a promise of rain for 40% of the day. Probability is not a stopwatch.

National Weather Service: rain probability

Question 1 Which practice period is warmest? Afternoon Morning Evening

Question 2 Which period has the greatest rain chance? Morning Evening Afternoon

Question 3 Is a forecast the same as a measurement of yesterday? Only when sunny No Yes

Question 4 What should you check before using a forecast? Place and time Only the picture Only the title

Question 5 The forecast changes before an outing. What helps? Ignore new information Assume the old forecast is certain Check the update with an adult

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