Separate Predictions from Results

Use a test record to compare an idea with evidence.

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Write what you expect before testing. Afterward, report what was measured, even if it differs from the prediction. A small test can support a limited conclusion without proving a rule for every situation.

Worked example

'I predict ramp B will give a longer roll' is a prediction. 'The ball rolled 80 cm in trial one' is a measurement. Neither should be quietly rewritten to match the other.

Trial A and Trial B use different settings of one factor. Both feed into a common measured outcome using the same method, with other relevant conditions held alike. — Use comparable starting conditions and the same measurement method; record what changes and what stays fixed.

Would you believe it?

two groups can share a mean without sharing the same measurements. Our ramp A and B values are different, yet both average seventy-two. That is why scientists keep the original observations as well as summaries. One number cannot tell every part of a data story.

A Ramp Prediction

A team predicts that a ball will roll farther from the taller ramp B. It uses the same ball, release method and floor for both ramps. Distances for A are 70, 74 and 72 cm. Distances for B are 73, 71 and 72 cm. These fictional results are measured from the ramp exit to where the ball stops. The team keeps all six measurements.

Question 1 Which statement is the prediction? The three ramp A distances were 70, 74 and 72 cm The ball will roll farther from ramp B Both ramps use the same ball

Question 2 What was deliberately changed? The ramp height The ball used The floor surface

Question 3 What was the average recorded distance for ramp A, in cm? Answer

Question 4 Do these measurements support the team's prediction in this test? Yes; every B trial was farther No; the two ramps had the same average distance Yes; predictions cannot be wrong

Question 5 What is a sensible next step? Delete the measurements that disagree Claim ramp height never matters anywhere Check the setup and repeat comparable trials

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