Distinguish Evidence from Assumption

Judge how strongly observations support a claim.

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Separate recorded facts from possible explanations. Ask whether another explanation fits the same facts. Use cautious conclusions when the evidence cannot establish a cause.

Worked example

If a library is quieter after new chairs arrive, the chairs are not necessarily the cause. Fewer visitors or a different activity could also explain the change.

The Courtyard Survey

A student council added shaded seats to the courtyard in May. It counted 18 lunchtime visitors on one sunny day before installation and 31 on one sunny day afterward. A council member said the seats caused the increase. The second count, however, fell during a week when an indoor room was closed. Another member suggested counting on more days and noting whether the room was open before drawing a conclusion.

1. Which statement is a recorded fact? The seats caused all the change Every student prefers shade The second count recorded 31 visitors

2. Which detail offers another explanation for the increase? The courtyard has seats An indoor room was closed The council has members

3. Why would more counting days help? They show whether the pattern repeats They guarantee the seats are the cause They erase the first count

4. Which conclusion is best supported? The seats had no possible effect The room closure explains every visitor More visitors were counted afterward, but the cause is uncertain

5. What information should accompany future counts? The council member's favorite color Whether the indoor room was open The number of letters in each visitor's name

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