Separate Earlier Events from Proven Causes - Practice 1

An event happening first is necessary for some causal explanations, but order alone is not enough.

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An event happening first is necessary for some causal explanations, but order alone is not enough. Look for a plausible mechanism, comparison evidence and alternatives. These fictional event pairs are deliberately insufficient to prove a cause.

Worked example

A bridge opens before trade rises. The dates alone do not show how much the bridge caused the rise; other changes may matter.

Schematic sequence, left to right: Earlier: Bridge opens; Later: Trade rises; Still needed: More evidence. Equal drawing gaps do not guarantee equal elapsed time.

Would you believe it?

Longitudes 179 degrees east and 179 degrees west are only two degrees apart across the longitude wrap, not 358 by the shorter angular route.

Question 1 Fictional timeline 1: bridge opens before trade rises. What do the dates alone establish? The stated order of events. The first event was the only cause. Every other factor stayed unchanged.

Question 2 Fictional timeline 2: school opens before literacy rises. What do the dates alone establish? The first event was the only cause. Every other factor stayed unchanged. The stated order of events.

Question 3 Fictional timeline 3: railway opens before town grows. What do the dates alone establish? Every other factor stayed unchanged. The stated order of events. The first event was the only cause.

Question 4 Fictional timeline 4: mill opens before migration rises. What do the dates alone establish? The stated order of events. The first event was the only cause. Every other factor stayed unchanged.

Question 5 Fictional timeline 5: new market opens before prices fall. What do the dates alone establish? The first event was the only cause. Every other factor stayed unchanged. The stated order of events.

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