Evaluate a forecast

Use place, time, temperature, wind, and rain chances to make a plan.

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A forecast predicts conditions; an observation records what happened. Check location, valid time and units. Rain probability describes a chance at a point during the stated period, not how long rain lasts. Update your plan as forecasts change.

Worked example

At the practice station, morning is 12 C with 20% rain chance; afternoon is 19 C with 70%. Afternoon is warmer and has the higher rain chance, not a guarantee of rain.

Fictional forecast table: morning 12 C and 20 percent rain, afternoon 19 C and 70 percent rain, evening 14 C and 40 percent rain.

Would you believe it?

A 40% chance of rain is not a promise of rain for 40% of the day. Probability is not a stopwatch.

National Weather Service: rain probability

Question 1 What distinguishes forecast from observation? Prediction versus measurement Font size Forecasts never use data

Question 2 Across many comparable 70% forecasts, about how often should rain occur if well calibrated? Every case Never About 70% of cases

Question 3 Why can a forecast change? All changes prove dishonesty New observations improve the estimate Nature follows the first prediction

Question 4 Why compare matching locations and valid times? Otherwise you may compare different conditions It removes all uncertainty It makes rain stop

Question 5 Is a classroom forecast table a live warning service? Yes Only when printed No, use official local alerts

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